US Open winner Webb Simpson has enough in the locker to take on Tiger this week
The Greenbrier Classic is appearing on the PGA tour schedule for a third year, and this time we see a very strong field make the trip to West Virginia. Included in the field is last week’s winner, Tiger Woods, who is starting to look not dissimilar to his old invincible self, as well as Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson and US Open winner Webb Simpson.
Looking at the leaderboards from 2010 & 2011, it’s important to note that some major changes were made to the Old White TPC between these two years. Following Stuart Appleby’s final round 59 on his way to victory in 2010, tournament organisers had to take action to make the course more of a challenge, and thus over 200 yards were added to the length of the course, the fairways were narrowed, and all 18 greens reseeded.
As expected, scoring was tougher with a winning total of -10. However, there are still plenty of birdies out there as both Jimmy Walker and Anthony Kim proved by shooting third round 62s.
There are two things I’m looking at to narrow down the field this week, and the first is Driving Distance. Although playoff loser Bob Estes and 4th place Brendon de Jonge can be vaguely questioned in this attribute, the remainder of last year’s top-10 are all reasonably long off the tee, with eventual winner Scott Stallings ranking 11th in this stat over the course of last season.
Next up, I’ve noticed something of a course link between here and Innisbrook, host of the Transitions Championship. Scott Stallings had finished 3rd at the Transitions Championship last season before his win here, and three other players (De Jonge, Woodland & Simpson) had posted top-5 finishes at Innisbrook before finishing in the top-10 here.
Here are my 7 picks for this week’s event:
Webb Simpson – I’m taking a bit of a chance that Tiger won’t be able to reproduce last week’s form and going for US Open winner Webb Simpson as my top pick this week. Whilst Tiger looked like the force of old last week, we shouldn’t forget that the AT&T National is his own tournament on a course he clearly loves. This week, on the other hand, will see Woods’ first competitive start at the Old White TPC and I think Webb has one over on him with two years of course experience under his belt. Although Simpson missed the cut here in 2010 amidst an up and down rookie year, he finished inside the top-10 last time around, which could easily have been better were it not for a disappointing level par 70 in the final round. Simpson finished in a tie for 10th in this year’s Transitions Championship and leads the tour in Birdie Average. For me, Simpson’s best ally is his mental strength, and nowadays he’s simply not the type to shrink under pressure.
5pts win only (20/1 Coral)
Seung-Yul Noh – After bringing in each-way returns at the tough AT&T National last week, I don’t feel I can desert Seung-Yul Noh this week on a track which should suit his game perfectly. Noh ranks 19th on tour in Driving Distance and 1st in Total Birdies, and he’s clearly got a good swing coach on board in the form of Sean Foley. It’s been a pretty impressive rookie season for the South Korean overall, in which he’s posted seven top-20 finishes, three of which have come in his last three starts on tour. It may be Noh’s first look at the Old White TPC this week, but there’s every chance he could go close again.
2pts each way (50/1 Ladbrokes)
Jeff Overton – Although his price didn’t leap off the page this week, it’s understandable that bookies want to keep former Ryder-cupper Jeff Overton on side this week. After all, Overton notched one of his four PGA tour runner-up finishes on this very course in 2010, shooting a total of -21. In all honestly, he would have notched his maiden tour win were it not for the heroics of Stuart Appleby with his final round 59. Overton ticks the right boxes this week – he’s not short of distance off the tee, he finished tied 5th at this year’s Transitions Championship, and he’s finished inside the top-25 in each of his last two starts on tour.
2pts each way (50/1 Ladbrokes)
Carl Pettersson – Big Carl brought in a 60/1 win back in April at the Heritage tournament, and I get the feeling he’s not done just yet for 2012. After his top-10 finish at the Players Championship two months ago, Pettersson hasn’t been playing his best golf, but he’s had two weeks since his missed cut at the US Open to rest up and iron out any problems in his game. Pettersson’s Greenbrier form reads 51-18, with the latter finish coming post-course changes and he improved as the week progressed last time around, shooting 70-70-69-66 over the four rounds. Pettersson ranks inside the top-40 on tour in Driving Distance and he’s deadly with the long putter.
1.5pts each way (66/1 Coral)
Charley Hoffman – Two time tour winner Charley Hoffman didn’t have the most successful 2011 campaign, and things started off in the much the same way in 2012. However, he seems to have turned things around in recent months and has five top-15 finishes to his name since March, including a tie for 14th in the aforementioned Transitions Championship, and a runner-up finish in the recent Travelers Championship. Although Hoffman brings with him little in the way of course form (he finished tied for 83rd in 2010), he’s a big hitter who’s more than capable of going low, and I fancy he can carry on his good run of form this week.
1.5pts each way (66/1 widely available)
John Rollins – The Greenbrier Classic is something of a home event for three-time tour winner John Rollins who grew up in Richmond, Virginia. What Rollins does well, in a nutshell, is just about everything from tee to green. The 36 year-old ranks 1st on tour in Total Driving (a combination of Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy) and 20th in Greens in Regulation. The only thing holding Rollins back from more tour wins is his putting, which is not terrible by any means, but sees him just inside the top-100 on tour. After a pair of missed cuts at Colonial and TPC Southwind, Rollins re-discovered his form last time out when he finished in a tie for 4th at the Travelers Championship, and he can carry this form to the Old White TPC this week, where he’s teed it up in each of the last two years.
1.25pts each way (70/1 Coral)
Harris English – One rookie who has been closely monitored by many a punter this year is Harris English. The 22 year-old has already notched six top-20s on tour, and he seems to like old-style tracks as he finished inside the top-10 at both Harbour Town and Colonial. After three indifferent performances recently, bookies are happy to ease English out to a triple-figure price this week which makes him excellent each-way value. Although English has no experience of this track, the Old White TPC should be right up his ally with his distance off the tee coupled with his GIR percentage.
1pt each way (100/1 widely available)
Hi Sam.
I’m liking the preview. Think Webbs price is on the button so only a small bet but with you on Petterson and Rollins and have just added Pat P to the portfolio. Playing well and inside the top 10 last year, just not sure if he can get over the line so will trade out if he goes skinny.
Good luck to all.
I did strongly look at Pat, especially after he at least gave me a run for my money last week. However, he did very much fade out of contention when the heat was on over the weekend which puts me off. In a weaker field, yes, but too many quality players here for him to come through I think.
How come no De Jonge? He has been excellent the last two years here and last week had the lead after 54.
Is your pick Noh if you can’t pick webb-tiger-phil-furyk??
You’ll see De Jonge picked by many a tipster on the grounds of excellent course form and a good showing last week. However, for that price, I would want someone who has a better record in contention. De Jonge may well win on the PGA tour soon, but I think it will come in a weaker field, and he’ll probably have to come from off the pace on a Sunday.
Tiger is a massive worry obviously, but I’m never going to be tipping him at current prices in an event he’s never played. Phil is dreadfully out of form and wasn’t great here last year. Furyk was disappointing last week on a course that he loves.
My pre-gpg viewing picks were Furyk, DeJonge, Walker, Noh, the Hoff, and Vegas, but per usual have taken a few of Sam’s suggestions (Simpson, Overton, Rollins, English). I’m not quite ready to give up on Furyk, I really don’t like DeJonge as he’s let me down quite a few occasions in the 4th round (but with his current form and history here, I can’t bring myself to pass on him, or Walker), and Noh is not to be overlooked. Really like Rollins this week, too. Cheers and good luck guys!
Good afternoon all. Kaymer (win only), Poulter, Foster, Larrazabal, Bourdy and Storm in the French Open and Hoffman, Noh, Romero, Huh and Howell here. Love the article Sam and between yours and Steve Palmer’s picks (Racing Post) I can’t find anyone else so have decided on a mixture of the two. Was a fan of Noh on the European Tour but felt like he needed some time to settle before I could back him on the PGA and now feel there’s a win in him somewhere.
I have stated on here previously that I felt Furyk was back to winning form this year but like others I too feel he may have missed his chance as his form recedes a little (however it should be noted that I deserted both Kuchar and Zach Johnson too early this year when I felt they were due a win) but more importantly I think the value has gone in backing him now. There were some far juicier prices for each way backers like me earlier this year when bookmakers still had him pegged as finished.
As for De Jonge I will never back him until he can prove that he has the ability to win (which by definition might mean I back him too late anyway as no guarantee he’d go on to win again) and for me he is the same bracket as Van Pelt (I’m aware he has won in the past) as players whose stats will always tempt people to back them, normally in my opinion at shorter odds then warranted, but those stats are based on 3 good rounds foolowed by a 4th round wilt or 3 average rounds finished of with a charge for a top 10 or 15 finish that flatters to deceive.
Now that is all off my chest good luck all!
Good luck Ian, glad we’re both agreed on a few. I have the same views on De Jonge, will be avoiding him until I see him handling contention better than last week!
Having followed your selections profitable for some time I question the advisability of EW betting.It means double stakes on most selections and often returns are adversely affected by joint placed results.Are you convinced that EW is the way ahead/
I understand why not everyone would be convinced by each-way betting.
However, take last week for example, Seung-Yul Noh played a great tournament but didn’t do enough to win. Because he finished tied for 4th, I got something back for my bet, rather than being empty handed for the event.
jeffdude, if I could be so impolite as offer my opinion to you when it wasn’t asked for I think you have to continue in the vein that you’re comfortable with but more importantly you have to treat each bet individually and weigh up the value. As can be seen from my selections most weeks I am very much an each way gambler and on a handful of occasions this year I have returned profit for a week where I haven’t had a winner but had two or three place returns. That being said of course on weeks where I have won nothing my stakes were doubled.
My main point is that this week for example I have backed Storm in the French Open at 125/1. He has won the evnt before and has superb tournament form but patchy recent form and is not a prolific winner overall. I have therefore backed him each way as 31.25/1 a place is good value (in my opinion) with the small chance of a win at the full odds but just backing him win only would not be value due to his strike rate.
there ends the sermon on the blindingly obvious!
………………..although as if to prove me wrong on all of the above Storm looks likely to miss the cut and cost me double my stake!
Guys, have only just read the last few posts about the value of EW betting.
Many people seem to view EW betting, in any sport let alone golf, as a type of insurance policy linked to the win element thinking if the selection doesn’t win it might be placed and add a safety net to the win bet.
This is totally the wrong train of thought and is a complete waste of money.
An EW bet should be viewed as two seperate bets and only be placed if the place element of the win price is deemed to be of outstanding value. Golf is not a sport where this happens as it is too competitive. There are generally 150+ players and you are trying to pick someone to finish in the top 5 at 1/4 the odds. This is extremely bad value! You are much better off using your two stakes on two seperate players.
Horse racing is one of the very few sports where EW betting can be value and it might only apply to approxiamately 100 races of the 12,000 + races run per year. An example of which is when you have an odds on chance, say 1/4, with a strong second favourite, say 5/1, and the rest at 14/1+. If you were to take out the fav then the 5/1 chance would become approxiamately 1/3 to win the race. This effectively becomes the second favs place price with the 1/4 fav taking part yet you can get Even money for the place element by backing the 5/1 second fav EW.
Basically, EW bets should only be used when you are convinced it is the correct bet but this should happen very rarely.
Good weekend to all.
Can’t believe we’ve been robbed of a winner twice in the last few weeks by someone playing so poorly in the last round. Maybe Driscoll was not a shock but Webb Simpson? Just painful to watch
Yep, it’s hard to take isn’t it when it’s someone so strong as Simpson. Just shows what a lottery it can be when a 1000/1 shot wins heh?