Jeff Overton looks primed for his maiden PGA tour victory
Stricker’s incredible record at TPC Deere Run is undoubtedly impressive, but he’s not quite managed to find the same consistency in 2012 that he’s been known for over the last few years. Stricker did win his first event of the year in Hawaii, but since then he hasn’t managed a single top-5 finish, which makes me content to leave him out of my staking plan.
Looking back at recent winners here, one stat jumps out as being of great importance – Birdie Average. With winning totals of 20-under, 26-under and 22-under in the last three years, it goes without saying that the winner needs to be making lots of birdies. Indeed, each of the last five winners (Byrd, Perry, Stricker x 3) has ranked inside the top-15 in Birdie Average over the course of the season in which they won here.
Although the course has been lengthened a few times since the tournament moved here in 2000, players with strong wedge games (of which Stricker is a master) tend to perform well at TPC Deere Run too. Last year, five of the top six on the leaderboard ranked inside the top-30 on tour in GIR Percentage <75 yards over the course of the 2011 season, so this is well worth considering this year.
Here are my 7 men against the field this week:
Jeff Overton – Overton makes another appearance in my selections this week as I simply can’t bring myself to leave him out when I firmly believe his maiden victory is just around the corner. Overton’s current form reads 13-22-17 and his course form reads 10-41-24 which would suggest this week is as good as any for Overton to find that elusive first win. Overton ranks 13th on tour in Birdie Average, 15th in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders, and he’s a very solid wedge player.
2.5pts each way (35/1 Paddy Power)
John Senden – 2006 winner John Senden has had a solid, if unspectacular season on the PGA tour. The 41 year-old has four top-10 finishes to his name, including at the similarly low-scoring Humana Challenge where he finished in a tie for 6th. Although Senden’s form took a bit of a dip recently, his last tournament start was an impressive tie for 10th in the brutal US Open, so something must be working. Stats-wise, Senden hits bags of greens – ranking 5th on tour in GIR, and he currently ranks 10th in Birdie Average.
2.5pts each way (40/1 widely available)
Sean O’Hair – It is not all that long ago that Sean O’Hair was one of the most revered young players on the PGA tour. Having won this very event in 2005, O’Hair was voted PGA tour rookie of the year, and looked a major winner in the making. Jumping ahead a few years, 2011 was beginning to look like a miserable season for O’Hair with a plethora of missed cuts in events he once loved. However, he grinded his way to a playoff at the Canadian Open nearly a year ago, and managed to dig out his fourth PGA tour win. 2012 started brightly with a tie for 2nd at the Sony Open, and although he hasn’t been able to replicate that form since, he bagged his second top-10 of the season last week at the Greenbrier Classic which should give him renewed confidence heading to TPC Deere Run.
2pts each way (40/1 widely available)
Tim Clark – Having once been inside the top-20 in the world rankings, Tim Clark is clearly a player of immense talent, and he finally broke through with a PGA tour win two years ago at the Players Championship. Elbow surgery saw Clark sit out much of the 2011 season, but he seems to be back to full fitness and posted his best PGA tour finish in over 17 months in his last start at the Travelers Championship. Clark has a very sharp wedge game, and it’s no surprise to see his excellent record at TPC Deere Run where his last three starts read 2-18-7.
2pts each way (40/1 Stan James)
Charley Hoffman – Another player who has caught my eye lately is Charley Hoffman, who has shown real signs of form recently without picking up any silverware. Most notably, Hoffman was runner-up in the recent Travelers Championship, and his tie for 22nd at the following week’s AT&T National was not a bad effort on a tough track. Although Hoffman didn’t play his best golf last week despite his opening 66, it was hard to know for sure whether he would take to the tweaked Great White TPC, which he clearly didn’t. Hoffman’s last two visits to TPC Deere Run read 15-7, so he brings some excellent progressive form to the table this week. As a past winner of the Bob Hope Classic, Hoffman is clearly more than capable of shooting low numbers, and he currently ranks 33rd on tour in Birdie Average.
1.75pts each way (50/1 Paddy Power)
Daniel Summerhays – Although Summerhays missed the cut here last year, he was in the midst of a pretty torrid rookie season which saw him miss 21 cuts, so this prior course form can be largely ignored. Summerhays has clearly found something in his game in recent months and has finished inside the top-5 in two of his last four starts. The 28 year-old ranks inside the top-20 on tour in GIR Percentage <75 yards, he ranks 12th in GIR, and his putting was better than it's been all season last week at the Greenbrier Classic.
1.25pts each way (80/1 Stan James)
Will Claxton – My rank outsider for this week, Will Claxton, is enjoying a pretty solid rookie season in which he’s only missed five cuts out of 19 starts. Furthermore, he’s finished inside the top-25 in two of his last three starts and closed with an excellent 65 last week at the Greenbrier Classic. Claxton is a great ball-striker and ranks 16th on tour in GIR, as well as ranking inside the top-20 in GIR Percentage <75 yards. His birdie average may not be quite as high as I'd like, but he does enough well to suggest he's worth an each-way bet at a triple-figure price.
0.75pts each way (150/1 Boylesports)
Ok lads- here we go again. Webb really let the stable down last week (albeit I didnt back him). I really like Overton this week but I am surprised not to see Ryan Palmer there Sam? I like Brian Gay too. It is wide open and I wouldnt be getting stuck into Stricker either. I could do with some money ahead of the Open next week. I am liking Fisher too in Scotland.
Interested to know your opinion on Stenson Sam- is he back to his best? or on route back to his best???
I did contemplate Palmer courtesy of good current form, but he looks a tad short given his missed cut last time he played here.
I definitely think Stenson is approaching his best and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him win this year.
not many comments out there this week Sam- the lads are staying low profile ahead of next week. Will you be doing a piece on next week?
I think Overton and Hoffman in the States this week. Will leave Palmer off. I do like seeing Kyle Stanley coming into a bit of form (was on him when he won in brilliant fashion) but it might be a week too early for him.
Enjoy and Good Luck!
I think everyone’s licking their wounds from last week tbh, I know I am! Good luck this week.
I think like a lot of the golfers this week I’ve got an eye on next weeks Open Championship. As such, just two bets on the PGA Tour for me this week.
1pt EW – Jeff Overton 40/1
1pt EW – Kyle Stanely 66/1
Scottish Open I have 3 picks
2pts win – Padraig Harrington 16/1
1pt EW – George Coetzee 50/1
1pt EW – Simon Dyson 50/1
A few people on Stanley this week. Understandable given his effort last year, but his putting in recent weeks has been pretty poor. You never know!
All small stakes for me with a slight change of tack to some win only bets so Fisher and Els win only in the Scottish Open and Oosthuizen, Cabrera-Bello (my main fancy), Larrazabal and Warren the other selections. Noh (my main fancy) and Pettersson win only in this one with Hoffman, Stanley, Summerhays and Every the other selections.
Sam, what are your thoughts on Every as a player? i have to admit to knowing next to nothing about him but when going through what seemed relevant statistics for this week his name always seemed to be there and at 80/1 this seemed a good price?
Good luck to all as ever.
I’ll tell you what, Ian, you might be onto something with Every. I’ll be honest that I ignored him this week as I thought it was his first start back from injury. Having just looked into it, it appears his wife was having a baby which is the reason for his absence. If you ever read anything about the ‘nappy factor’ that means it’s the right time to be backing Every. He’s a very solid player too, good luck!
Looks like the best of the draw will be for Thursday afternoon/ Friday morning this week…. albeit that is very early weather indications. Friday afternoon looks very blustery and Thursday morning looks wet.
You writing up a preview Sam? Really looking forward to it. Early declarations on my short list include Westie, Molinari, Fisher and Colsaertas. Simon Dyson is also at a huge price although not sure if he back to his best!!!
Hi all,
Not saying he’ll win but had a throwaway tenner on Paul Casey at Ladbrokes standout 500/1. That is too big and bigger than Betfair by some way.
Good week to all.
think harrington and garcia should go well in the open. Harrington 6 top 10′s last 12 events, garcia in top 10 o a regular basis in the open although modest form this seasion is a worry.
garcia 7 top 10′s last 11 opens is impressive
Retief Goosen another with eye catching open record 8 top 10′s in last 14 opens 110/1
harrington 20/1
garcia 40/1
robert karlsson two top 15s last 3 opens and dunhill links winner in 2008 is 150/1
all good each way/top 10 bets possibly?