Donald’s game is the perfect fit for TPC Sawgrass

Often dubbed the ‘fifth major’, the field is consistently the strongest that you will see in a golfing event due to the qualification criteria, and this edition looks as wide open as ever with Matt Kuchar attempting to defend his title.

The first trend which forms a large basis to my preview is one of course form. Whilst course form can be taken with a pinch of salt in certain events, it shouldn’t be ignored here as eight of the last nine winners had finished 17th or better in either their previous or penultimate visit to the Pete Dye-designed TPC Sawgrass.

Secondly, being a demanding course, it’s all about being able to grind out a solid score – and it’s no great surprise to see each of the last six winners ranking inside the top-20 on tour in Scoring Average in the seasons of their victories here.

It’s interesting, and also appealing from a betting perspective, that many of the top players in the world don’t fit the former criteria and some have really struggled at TPC Sawgrass in recent years.

Here are my 7 picks this week:

Luke Donald – Donald is not a player who often finds his name on the pages of Golf Punters’ Guide, but with question-marks above him in the betting, I actually think this is an excellent chance for him to pick up a big title. After a few indifferent performances here from 2008-2010, Donald seems to have really got to grips with TPC Sawgrass, and finishes of 4th and 6th in his last two visits inspire confidence. With a top-3 finish on another Pete Dye design (Harbour Town Golf Links) in his last outing, Donald’s game seems to be in decent shape and as per the last few years, his name can be found inside the top-10 on tour in Scoring Average. Whilst I have previously criticised the 35-year-old’s strike rate in strokeplay events in the US, he now boasts strokeplay wins in each of his last two years on tour, and I believe he can step up to a big title this week.

5pts win only (22/1 Coral)

Bo Van Pelt – Considered to be one of the nicest guys on the PGA tour, few people would begrudge Bo Van Pelt the title of Players Champion, and despite a poor win ratio on the PGA tour, there’s no doubt about his ability which has to see him land some silverware soon. The 37-year-old’s tie for 6th at Quail Hollow last week is a good current form indicator, especially when you consider his good performance at TPC Sawgrass 12 months ago came off the back of a missed cut and a withdrawal in his two prior starts. Furthermore, with top-7 finishes in two of his last three visits to Sawgrass, Van Pelt puts a firm tick in that box, and being one of the best drivers of the ball on the PGA tour, he should be in his element this week.

2pts each way (55/1 Betfair fixed odds)

Steve Stricker – Stricker is very lightly raced this year, a decision he made earlier on in the season which is fully understandable when you consider that he is fast approaching 50 years of age. Despite his bare schedule, Stricker seems more than capable of turning up and contending as he proved in his runner-up finish at Doral back in March. Stricker finished 12th in his penultimate visit to Sawgrass so it’s hard to know what to make of his missed cut last year when his game looked in solid shape. I’m prepared to give him a chance however on a course that should suit him down to the ground where it’s all about finding fairways and getting up and down from off the greens. The veteran currently ranks 12th on tour in Scoring Average, and looks a lively outsider this week.

1.5pts each way (66/1 Ladbrokes)

Kevin Streelman – Having broken through with his maiden title at this year’s Tampa Bay Championship (another tough driving course), Kevin Streelman hasn’t done what many have done and faded into the background since. In fact, Streelman has come close to adding to his tally by posting top-6 finishes in his last two starts (including a tie for 3rd at the Pete Dye designed Harbour Town). Streelman ranked 4th in Proximity to the Hole at Quail Hollow last week which is a mark of just how well he’s striking the ball and he currently ranks 10th on tour in Scoring Average. Whilst Streelman doesn’t quite fit the aforementioned course form trend, he’s not far off having posted a tie for 19th in his penultimate visit to Sawgrass, a finish that was hampered by a third-round 75.

1.25pts each way (90/1 Stan James [6 places])

Peter Hanson – Peter Hanson withdrew during the second round of the recent RBC Heritage tournament citing a back injury, and although this warrants slight concern, he claims on Twitter that he felt no pain hitting balls a few days ago which makes him worth a bet at a triple-figure price. Hanson boasts back-to-back top-20s at TPC Sawgrass and improved throughout last year’s tournament, posting rounds of 73-71-71-68. The Swede is great around the greens, currently ranking 4th in Scrambling from the Rough and 14th in Scrambling from >30 yards.

1pt each way (110/1 Stan James [6 places])

Carl Pettersson – One thing I always keep an eye out for, especially in events like this, is progressive course form, and with his last four visits reading 51-WD-33-10, I think Pettersson is a handy outsider this week. The big Swede won on the Pete Dye-designed Harbour Town last year, and whilst he may not have found top gear so far in 2013, there were some positive signs in his Heritage defence three weeks ago and he’s had a couple of weeks off since then to tune up his game. Pettersson has five PGA tour wins to his name, and he’s very solid in contention – there’s every reason he can step up and win a big title like the Players.

1pt each way (125/1 Ladbrokes)

David Toms – With top-10 finishes in three of last four visits to TPC Sawgrass, a triple-figure price looks a gift this week on David Toms. The 2001 PGA Championship winner is very much in the twilight of his career but is still able to compete with the young guns as he proved at this year’s Masters with a pretty impressive tie for 13th. Realistically though, wins are only likely to come on shorter tracks where accurate driving and good scrambling are rewarded, which is TPC Sawgrass all over. The 46-year-old ranks 25th on tour in Scrambling and 6th in Driving Accuracy, so there’s little doubt he ticks all the necessary boxes here.

1pt each way (125/1 Betfair fixed odds)

Watson is a previous runner-up at Quail Hollow

The host course is, as ever, Quail Hollow – measuring a relatively demanding 7,492 yards which will make life tough for the shorter hitters on tour. Indeed, looking at recent winners here, Driving Distance certainly plays an important part. Each of the last six winners had ranked 63rd or better in the Driving Distance stat on the PGA tour in the seasons of their victories here.

In terms of other trends, I’ve noticed a possible link with Firestone Country Club, host of the annual Bridgestone Invitational. Five of the last seven winners at Quail Hollow (as well as last year’s playoff loser) had posted a top-25 in the previous year’s Bridgestone Invitational. The courses are certainly not without their similarities, with Firestone having the same traditional feel as Quail Hollow as well as measuring a similar length (7,400 yards) and featuring Bentgrass greens.

Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson (amongst other big names) make their first appearance since the Masters, and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back from pretty disappointing visits to Augusta.

Here are my 6 selections this week:

Bubba Watson – It was an odd week last week for four-time PGA tour winner Bubba Watson where an opening round 73 left him with work to do just to make the cut. A second round 65, however, was just the antidote, and whilst he struggled to reproduce that form on Saturday, a final round 66 got the 34-year-old into a tie for 15th and will give him some confidence heading to Quail Hollow. Particularly interesting is that Watson led the field in Proximity to the Hole in that final round which is as good a sign as any that his swing is starting to work well again. Watson sat last year’s Wells Fargo Championship out, and his previous finishes of 48th and 22nd may not set the world alight, but a runner-up finish in 2009 is well worth noting, and his distance off the tee will serve him well this week.

4pts win only (28/1 Sportingbet)

Nick Watney – Although Nick Watney will be disappointed to have never really got himself in contention in New Orleans last week, his tie for 15th is impressive in as much as it featured four rounds in the 60s – never an easy feat. As a pretty long and straight driver of the ball, Quail Hollow should be right up Watney’s street, and after a number of very solid top-25s here in recent years, he stepped it up a gear last time round, finishing inside the top-10 having led the tournament at the half-way stage. Watney often performs best on ‘classic’ courses, and a top-20 finish at Firestone in his last visit gives me further confidence that he should go well this week.

3.5pts each way (28/1 widely avaiable)

Bill Haas – Bill Haas has done just about everything in 2013 except from win, and I can’t help but feel he’ll have his hands on some silverware before the season is out if he keeps playing like he has been. Haas has some handy course form at Quail Hollow, including top-5 finishes in 2006 & 2011 so it’s no great surprise to see that he has always ranked well in the PGA Tour’s Total Driving stat. Haas finished inside the top-20 in last year’s Bridgestone Invitational and having previously shot a 64 around Quail Hollow (in 2011), he clearly knows how to play this course.

3pts each way (33/1 widely available)

Nicolas Colsaerts – Although I’m slightly loath to back debutants at Quail Hollow, a certain Rory McIlroy won here on his first visit to the course, and I think Nicolas Colsaerts is the best hope amongst the many talented debutants this week. It has taken the Belgian a little while to get accustomed to life on the PGA tour, but a top-10 in last week’s Zurich Classic will give him confidence heading to Quail Hollow which should suit his game down to a tee. Over the course of last week’s event, the 30-year-old ranked 8th in Greens in Regulation, so his ball-striking is certainly getting back to where it should be and he’s worth chancing at a decent price.

1.5pts each way (75/1 Betfair fixed odds)

Geoff Ogilvy – 2013 has been a mixed bag for 2006 US Open Champion, Geoff Ogilvy. In finishing runner-up at the Honda Classic at the beginning of March, it seemed the Australian was getting back to his best, but his form since then reads 47-61-C-C. Maybe a few weeks off to work on his game is just what Ogilvy needed, and what better place for him to recapture his form than Quail Hollow where he has finished no worse than 38th in each of his eight appearances. Ogilvy has been vocal about his struggles with Bermuda greens in the past, so he will certainly be happier on the Bentgrass surfaces of Quail Hollow. The 35-year-old bagged a top-25 in last year’s Bridgestone Invitational and looks a lively outsider this week.

1pt each way (125/1 Betfair fixed odds)

Sean O’Hair – Whilst Sean O’Hair hasn’t been in his finest form for over a year, he has shown glimmers in 2013 with top-20 finishes at Pebble Beach and the Honda Classic, and whilst last week’s tie for 47th is nothing to write home about, it was the first time he shot under par in all four rounds in nearly three months. Despite form question-marks, the 2009 champion looks well over-priced this week at 200/1, especially when you consider his last PGA tour win (the 2011 Canadian Open) came off the back of a pair of missed cuts.

0.5pts each way (200/1 Betfair fixed odds)

Fowler showed glimmers of his best at Augusta

The tournament venue is a 7,425 yard Pete Dye design which has hosted this event since 2005 (bar 2006 where hurricane damage resulted in that year’s event being played at English Turn), and whilst it’s no push-over, last year’s winning score of -19 will tell you there are plenty of birdies out there.

World number four Justin Rose heads up the tournament winner market at a current best price of 14/1, and despite his unarguable consistency in 2013, he entered last year’s event in equally good shape and could only manage a tie for 10th, so I think he’s worth opposing this week.

With a handful of other Pete Dye designs in circulation on the PGA tour, it’s certainly worth looking at leaderboards from the respective events. Harbour Town (host of last week’s Heritage tournament) TPC River Highlands (host of the Travelers Championship) and TPC Sawgrass (host of the Players Championship) are three such courses, albeit tighter tracks which punish wayward driving far more than TPC Louisiana.

Maybe a more useful reference is Whistling Straits, host of the 2010 PGA Championship where Martin Kaymer picked up his first major. This Pete Dye design is a closer yardage to TPC Louisiana at 7,507 yards and it’s interesting to note that the last two winners of the Zurich Classic finished inside the top-5 there.

Here are my 7 selections for this week:

Rickie Fowler – Fowler heads to New Orleans after taking last week off to recover from the Masters where he showed real signs of why he is one of the most promising and yet frustrating young players on the PGA tour. Fowler made a hatful of birdies at a tough-playing Augusta, but racked up four double-bogeys and a triple-bogey to ruin all of his good work. Big numbers are harder to find at TPC Louisiana which should play into the hands of the 24-year-old who currently ranks 26th on tour in Birdie Average. A tie for 10th in his last visit to TPC Louisiana and a runner-up finish in last year’s Players Championship would indicate something of an affinity for Pete Dye tracks, and I expect a strong showing from the young American this week.

5pts win only (22/1 widely available)

Billy Horschel – Coming into this event off the back of a trio of top-10s, there is no doubt that Billy Horschel is one of the form players on the PGA tour right now, and very few golf fans would be surprised if the 26-year-old gets his hands on some silverware at some point in 2013. Whilst a tie for 26th here in 2011 is promising, we shouldn’t concern ourselves too much with Horschel’s missed cut last year as this came amidst considerably worse form. Horschel currently ranks 4th on tour in Birdie Average, and whilst he hasn’t had much opportunity to tee it up on other Pete Dye tracks, a tie for 9th at last week’s Heritage tournament is a good sign.

3pts each way (33/1 Stan James [top-6])

Brendon de Jonge – Brendon de Jonge still awaits his maiden PGA tour title and on paper you’d have to think he’s not far away. What I like about the Zimbabwean is the way he holds his form and current form reading 10-22-9 is an encouraging sign, especially when you consider last week’s tie for 9th is the first time he’s broken the top-20 at Harbour Town. The 32-year-old improved throughout the week in last year’s Zurich Classic, posting rounds of 73-69-69-66 to finish inside the top-20, and top-15 finishes at last year’s Players Championship and Travelers Championship are good signs in relation to his Pete Dye form.

2.5pts each way (40/1 widely available)

Camilo Villegas – With only conditional status on the PGA tour this year having finished a disappointing 144th on the 2012 money list, Villegas has to make the most of the limited starts he gets, and he certainly seems to be doing just that, posting top-20 finishes in three of his last four starts. As the highest finisher on the 2010 PGA Championship leaderboard in this week’s field aside from 2011 Zurich Classic champion, Bubba Watson, Villegas is an intriguing player here. A top-20 finish in last year’s event came amidst much worse form, and I think the Colombian is well worth a bet at a decent price.

1.5pts each way (66/1 Stan James [top-6])

Rory Sabbatini – Sabbatini was one of my selections for last week’s Heritage at a big price, and whilst he didn’t manage to get himself into the places, a top-10 finish is nothing to be sniffed at. When you delve deeper into his performance at Harbour Town, it’s intriguing to note that the South African ranked 2nd in Greens in Regulation and 8th in Proximity to the Hole, suggesting his ball-striking is in great shape heading to New Orleans. Sabbatini finished runner-up in this event four years ago, ranks 6th on tour in Birdie Average and is a six-time PGA tour winner.

1.25pts each way (80/1 Stan James [top-6])

Jason Kokrak – Jason Kokrak came close to opening his PGA tour account on his rookie season last year, finishing 2nd in the Frys.com Open, and the 27-year-old already has two top-10s to his name in 2013. Kokrak’s course debut last year came off the back of a string of five missed cuts, and he still managed a top-60 finish, so with much better form coming into this year’s event (bar a missed cut at Harbour Town on a course where he is frankly bound to struggle), there’s good reason to expect better this time around. Kokrak won twice on the Nationwide (now web.com) Tour in 2011 where his winning totals were -18 and -20, so he loves a track where birdies are up for grabs.

0.5pts each way (200/1 Stan James [top-6])

James Hahn – My rank outsider for this week is James Hahn, who I was very impressed with on the West Coast swing earlier this year. Whilst his form has tailed off since then, a tie for 35th on his Heritage debut is nothing to be sniffed at on a course that doesn’t really play into his hands. Hahn appeared to struggle with the wind when it really started blowing on Sunday and succumbed to a final round 75. This week, with more room off the tee, I expect Hahn to feel more comfortable, and being a real ball-strikers course, there’s every reason he can give us a run for our money at a huge price.

0.5pts each way (499/1 Betfair win only, 50/1 Bwin to place)

Weekley is a Harbour Town course specialist

The field is considerably stronger than last year’s field, with a number of highly-ranked players making the trip from Augusta to tee it up on a very different style of course in the form of Harbour Town Golf Links.

Whilst big-hitters increasingly go well at Augusta, they seldom prevail at Harbour Town with narrow fairways that demand the ability to shape the ball off the tee. Also unlike Augusta, the greens here are tiny (averaging just over 3,700 square feet per green), and whilst the assumption therefore is that GIR is the key stat here, recent leaderboards point even more in the direction of good scramblers. Simply put, even the best ball-strikers will be missing greens here, so it’s all about the ability to get up and down.

Interestingly, each of the last five winners here had a previous top-20 finish to their name at Harbour Town, so there are elements of this being a horses-for-courses track. It’s also worth cross-referencing other shortish shot-makers courses such as Waialae, Colonial and Sedgefield to look for pointers as to who may go well here.

Here are my 7 men against the field this week:

Boo Weekley – It’s not often that Boo Weekley will top my selections for any PGA tour event, but there are certain players who should always be respected on particular courses, and being a two-time winner at Harbour Town, Weekley commands respect here. The 39-year-old came perilously close to winning a few weeks ago at Innisbrook where he posted a stunning final round 63 only to be edged out by Kevin Streelman, but that performance is a warning of what he’s capable of when his game is on. Weekley may not be the best scrambler around, but his ball-striking more than makes up for it as he currently ranks 9th on tour in GIR and 7th in Total Driving.

3pts each way (35/1 888 sport)

Tim Clark – Currently ranking 179th on tour in Driving Distance, it is realistically going to be hard for Clark to compete on several courses on the PGA tour, which makes tournaments like this one very important for the South African. Given his lack of distance off the tee, a tie for 11th at last week’s Masters tournament is particularly impressive. His runner-up finish at the Sony Open back in January came at Waialae CC, another short, narrow track which demands good shot-making and strong scrambling skills, and it’s no coincidence that last year’s RBC Heritage winner Carl Pettersson had finished runner-up in this very event last year. Clark finished tied for 7th at Harbour Town back in 2006, and although his recent results here don’t reach the same heights, his tie for 37th last year came off the back of a trio of missed cuts.

2pts each way (55/1 Stan James)

Aaron Baddeley – I like to look out for players whose recent form is on a good trajectory, and Baddeley certainly ticks that box with his last three starts reading C-31-15. The Aussie will be boosted by the Masters win of fellow countryman Adam Scott, and he’ll be looking for his second title at Harbour Town having won the 2006 event. Even aside from his victory here, Baddeley has an excellent track record at Harbour Town, having finished no worse than 22nd in five of his six course appearances since then. The 32-year-old might not be the straightest driver of the ball, but he knows how to get it around here and there’s no question-marks over his scrambling ability.

2pts each way (50/1 widely available)

Ben Crane – There are a number of similarities between Crane’s profile coming into this event and that of Carl Pettersson last year. Just as Pettersson had, Crane narrowly missed out on a Masters invite; they both turned in a top-5 finish at the Shell Houston Open in their last start before coming to Harbour Town; and they both have multiple PGA tour wins to their names. Crane has some very solid form at Harbour Town through the years including a tie for 6th in his last visit (in 2011). Although his 2013 stats might not reflect this as they usually do, he is a very accurate driver of the ball and an excellent putter.

1.5pts each way (60/1 Bet 365)

Kevin Streelman – Having opened up his PGA tour account with a win at the recent Tampa Bay Championship, I’m surprised to see Streelman available at a triple-figure price here. Innisbrook (scene of his aforementioned victory) shares certain attributes with Harbour Town and I would expect the winning total to not be dissimilar this week. Streelman’s Harbour Town course form is heading in the right direction as he put missed cuts in 2008 & 2009 behind him and has finished 36th and 17th in his last two visits. The 34-year-old has the golden combination of being an excellent ball-striker and also a solid scrambler, so there’s every reason to expect another big week.

1pt each way (100/1 Bet Victor)

Rory Sabbatini – With wins at Riviera and Colonial to his name, there’s little doubt that Sabbatini thrives on traditional old-style courses like Harbour Town where he boasts course form reading 8-14-17. Whilst Sabbatini is without a PGA tour win in just over two years now, he is a very strong player in contention, and having failed to meet the qualification criteria for the Masters for the first time in nine years, he’ll be keen to make sure that doesn’t happen again.

1pt each way (125/1 Stan James)

Bob Estes – It’s worth keeping an eye on PGA tour player’s Twitter profiles, because occasionally you get a useful nugget of information which suggests someone might be worth investing in. Bob Estes is one of the most active Twitter users on tour whatever the state of his personal form, but has been making very positive noises lately, including saying his game “is about to get better” and how he “might surprise some people this year”. His most recent outing was a tie for 7th at the Valero Texas Open where he ranked 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting and 2nd in Proximity to the Hole, so something is certainly working for the 47-year-old. Estes has finished 13th and 24th here in recent years and I think he’s an excellent each-way bet this week.

1pt each way (239/1 Betfair win market, 20/1 Betfair place market)

Bradley has finished inside the top-10 in each of his last three PGA tour starts

This year, we see Tiger Woods heading into the event in very strong form (with three wins to his name in 2013 including in his last outing) having reclaimed the number one spot from a slightly out-of-sorts Rory McIlroy.

Whilst McIlroy’s form hasn’t been great in 2012, a runner-up finish last week couldn’t have come at a better time and it would be foolish to completely write off the Northern Irishman. His PGA Championship win came off the back of 2012 major championship form reading 40-C-60 so he’s clearly a player who’s able to turn his form round at the blink of an eye.

Woods fully deserves to be heading up the betting with his deadly combination of great current form and four green jackets, but I’m happy to swerve him on the following basis: Augusta National was lengthened in 2006, and Woods hasn’t won here since then (he has, of course, gone close in this time). Whilst he’s certainly not short of distance off the tee, I can’t help but feel the course just doesn’t set up quite as well for him since the lengthening. I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from going for the ‘betting without Tiger’ approach, but I’m happy to avoid him at the price.

The order of the day when trying to find the winner at Augusta is to look at the trends. There are a few key trends to look at which help immensely in narrowing down the field.

Firstly, debutants should be avoided. This stat gets rolled out year upon year, but Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 was the last debutant to win here. Secondly, players of the age of 47 or over should be avoided (and possibly those approaching that age). Jack Nicklaus is the oldest Masters winner to date at 46 years old.

The most important trend for me is looking at players who have previously posted a sub-70 round at Augusta. 20 of the last 21 Masters winners had previously shot below 70 here, and I’m prepared to rule out those who haven’t.

This is certainly no secret, but length off the tee appears to be increasingly important here. Bubba Watson certainly proved that point nicely by winning here last year, but even the players around him on last year’s leaderboard can nearly all lay claim to being big-hitters.

Lastly, players able to shape the ball from right-to-left have an advantage here with a number of holes featuring doglegs in this direction, and a sharp short game is of huge benefit around the perilously quick and undulating greens of Augusta.

WIN MARKET

Here are my 6 selections to win the Masters:

Keegan Bradley – Keegan Bradley enters this year’s Masters in very solid form with top-10 finishes in each of his last four starts, so his game is clearly in great shape. Bradley made his debut here last year, and importantly posted that key sub-70 round (a 69) in his final round. His final finishing position of tied for 27th is very respectable on a debut performance, and were it not for a disappointing second round 77, he could have gone much closer. Bradley has plenty of distance off the tee, currently ranking 10th on the PGA tour in Driving Distance, and his ranking of 12th in Scrambling is more encouraging still.

3.5pts each way (30/1 Stan James)

Dustin Johnson – Dustin Johnson comes into this year’s Masters with nice looking form trajectory reading 46-12-4, the latter appearance coming at the Shell Houston Open (at Redstone Golf Club) which is very similar in set-up to Augusta. Johnson missed last year’s Masters due to injury, so he’ll be eager to get back on the fairways of Augusta which should suit someone with his length (and ability to draw the ball). Johnson has finished no worse than 38th and no better than 30th in his three starts at Augusta, but encouragingly his last appearance here featured a second round 68. The 28-year-old currently ranks 12th on tour in putting from inside 5ft and has been in contention in enough major championships to get over the line.

3pts each way (35/1 Paddy Power [each way top-6])

Nick Watney – Nick Watney has won in three of his last four seasons on the PGA tour, and although his 2013 form doesn’t leap off the page since his top-5 finish at Torrey Pines, he showed positive signs last time out at the Shell Houston Open (at Redstone). Watney shot no worse than level par in each of the four rounds at Redstone and featured a very solid final round 67 to give him confidence heading to Augusta. Watney posted three straight top-20 Masters finishes from 2008-2010 and although last year’s tie for 32nd might not excite punters, he entered the final round only just outside the top-10 only to succumb to a disappointing 77 to close out the tournament.

1.5pts each way (60/1 Paddy Power [each way top-6])

Angel Cabrera – Augusta is certainly a horses-for-courses type of track, and past champion Cabrera clearly loves it here. Although his 2009 victory here remains his last professional victory of note (unless you count last year’s Argentinian Open that is), Cabrera notched a top-20 at the recent Shell Houston Open (at Redstone) which is very similar in set-up to Augusta. Cabrera has broken par in nine of his last ten rounds at Augusta and has broken 70 around here on many occasions. With the large undulating greens of Augusta, making short par saves is often necessary and I’m encouraged by the fact Cabrera currently ranks 2nd on the PGA tour in Putting from inside 5 feet.

1pt each way (110/1 Paddy Power [each way top-6])

Stewart Cink – After a pretty dismal couple of years in 2011 & 2012, Stewart Cink is showing very strong signs of a return to form. The 39-year-old finished in the top-15 at the recent Tampa Bay Championship, and a tie for 6th in his last start is a very strong showing ahead of his visit to Augusta. This tie for 6th came at Redstone, which as we know, is very similar in set-up to Augusta, so this will give the 2009 Open Champion confidence ahead of the first major of the year. Cink may not have fired on all cylinders in his last few trips to Augusta, but has five top-20s to his name here including an excellent tie for 3rd in 2008. Cink is not short off the tee and has broken 70 around Augusta on two occasions which makes him a lively outsider in my mind.

0.5pts each way (200/1 Betfred)

John Merrick – My rank outsider for this week, and a very interesting player indeed is 31-year-old John Merrick. In his seventh season on the PGA tour, Merrick finally picked up his first win at the Northern Trust Open earlier this year, and that will undoubtedly be a huge weight off the American’s shoulders. Although Merrick missed the cut in his last Masters start (in 2010), he finished a very impressive tied for 6th in his tournament debut in 2009. That performance featured rounds of 68 and 66 so he certainly knows how to post a good number here. Merrick has sufficient distance off the tee to compete here and has long been one of the best ball strikers on the PGA tour.

0.5pts each way (250/1 Paddy Power [each way top-6])

TOP DEBUTANT

The top debutant market is always interesting, and it looks a strong contest this year. Here is my selection in this market:

David Lynn – Having not won a professional tournament since the 2004 KLM Open on the European Tour, few people would have predicted that David Lynn would play the tournament of his life in the last major championship (PGA Championship) and finish runner-up to Rory McIlory. That single performance earned Lynn his PGA tour card for 2013 and he seems to be making the most of it having posted a top-5 finish at the recent Honda Classic and a top-15 last week in Texas. Lynn clearly isn’t daunted by long tracks (as proved by his PGA Championship performance on the longest course in major championship history) and he currently ranks 7th on the PGA tour in putting inside 5ft.

2pts win only (14/1 Ladbrokes)

Bradley has three top-5 finishes to his name already in 2013

The Tournament Course at Redstone Golf Club plays host once again, and the Rees Jones design is geared up to provide a similar test to that of Augusta National.

Without doubt, length off the tee is important here as one can see by perusing recent leaderboards of years gone by. Much like Augusta National, driving accuracy plays second fiddle to a large extent.

One interesting trend I’ve come across is that each of the last four winners of this event had either a win or a runner-up finish to their name in the season of their victories before winning here. In the case of three of the last four winners, this finish came on the West Coast swing. 2010 winner Anthony Kim had finished runner-up in the Florida-based Honda Classic before his win at Redstone.

The trend extends beyond merely the winner too. Looking at last year’s leaderboard here, three other players who finished tied 4th or better (Bradley, Mickelson and Pettersson) had a top-2 finish to their names earlier that season.

Here are my 7 selections for this week:

Keegan Bradley – Keegan Bradley was my headline pick for this event last year, and although he came up four shots shy of Mahan’s winning total, a tie for 4th was a solid performance for the 26-year-old, and shows us that this venue is right up his street. Bradley has plenty of distance off the tee, currently ranking 19th on tour in Driving Distance, and his 2011 PGA Championship victory came on a course of almost identical yardage as Redstone. Bradley’s game is in excellent shape at the moment as proved by a tie for 3rd last week, and although he may not boast a top-2 finish this year, three top-5s is enough to give me confidence in him this week.

6pts win only (16/1 Stan James)

Henrik Stenson – It’s been an odd few years for Stenson since he captured the Players Championship in 2009, but the 36-year-old managed to get back on the winner’s podium on the European Tour at the end of last year, winning the South African Open. The Swede showed excellent signs last week with a top-10 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and even more impressive is that he ranked 2nd in Greens In Regulation during that performance, which is his personal best at Bay Hill. Stenson has some handy course form at Redstone having finished 3rd here in the same year as his Players Championship conquest, and last year’s tie for 21st could have been even better were it not for a mediocre weekend showing.

2pts each way (50/1 Paddy Power [top-6])

Jordan Spieth – With a runner-up finish to his name at the recent Puerto Rico Open and a very strong performance the following week in Tampa, youngster Jordan Spieth ticks all the right boxes for a strong debut performance at Redstone. The 19-year-old is Texas born and bred, and is showing the potential to become one of the best ball-strikers on tour. It’s still early days in the season, but Spieth ranks 10th on tour in Scoring Average, 5th in Proximity to the Hole and 2nd in Greens In Regulation, and this is a good a chance as any for Spieth to earn himself a late Masters invite.

2pts each way (50/1 Paddy Power [top-6])

Chris Kirk – I often think of Chris Kirk as being somewhat a underrated player. After all, the 27-year-old won on his rookie season on the PGA tour and has come out firing in 2013, posting top-5 finishes on two classic tracks (Waialae and Pebble Beach). It’s hard to fathom why Kirk decided to sit this one out last year having finished runner-up in 2011, but I’m further encouraged that this finish came off the back of a pair of missed cuts, a far cry from his form heading into this year’s event. Kirk has plenty of distance off the tee, and he seems to have made great strides with the putter this year.

2pts each way (55/1 Stan James)

Cameron Tringale – Tringale may not have done us justice with his performance last week at Bay Hill, but his top-30 finish indicates that his game is still in solid enough shape, and he’ll be looking forward to returning to Redstone where he posted one of his four top-10s in 2012. That performance came off the back of form reading 46-C, as opposed to form of 3-27 at the same venues this year which gives me confidence that he can go even better this time around. Although Tringale isn’t a ‘bomber’ per se, he has plenty of distance off the tee, and undoubtedly a solid enough all-round game to break into the winner’s circle.

1pt each way (90/1 Coral)

Graham DeLaet – DeLaet is another player who looks to be on the cusp of breaking through into the winner’s circle, and four top-10 finishes already in 2013 is a mark of his consistent play. Whilst he missed the cut in this event last year, he did open with a solid 67, and we shouldn’t ignore the fact this came off the back of a missed cut at Innisbrook (as opposed to a tie for 17th this year). Scroll back a few years and DeLaet finished in a tie for 3rd here in 2010, so he clearly likes something about this track. The Canadian has distance to burn and ranks 5th on tour in Greens in Regulation.

1pt each way (90/1 Coral)

Charlie Beljan – Charlie Beljan has been something of an enigma so far this year. Last year’s Disney winner has missed six of eight cuts, but boasts a runner-up finish in the Northern Trust Open just over a month ago. The 28-year-old makes his debut at Redstone this week but we shouldn’t let this put us off as Paul Casey won when teeing it up here for the first time back in 2009. Beljan ranked 2nd on tour in Driving Distance last year, and it only seems to be his putting which is stopping him from contending on a more regular basis.

0.5pts each way (200/1 widely available)

Bubba will be looking to get his hands on some silverware ahead of his Masters defence

The 7,419 Bay Hill golf course consistently ranks amongst the hardest on the PGA tour, with Tiger Woods’ winning total of -13 last year the lowest in this event for six years.

Much like last week, with expected tough scoring here, players will need to be on top of their games and keep bogeys off the card if they’re going to content, and it’s interesting to note that five of the last six winners here came into the event off the back of a top-10 finish in their previous start. Tiger Woods is the exception having withdrawn in his previous start (at Doral) before winning here last year, but as we know, the former World Number 1 is not a player you can ever confidently write off.

On this basis, my staking plan this week all takes place in the w/o Tiger Woods market. Woods is a seven-time winner at Bay Hill and was very impressive in his Doral win last time out, so there’s every chance he wins again this week. 3/1 is not a price I’m ever going to get involved with however, so the w/o Woods market is the way to go for me.

Here are my five selections this week:

Bubba Watson – Watson was my headline pick in this event last time around, and although he finished eight shots back from Woods’ winning total, he managed to finish in a tie for 4th and didn’t shoot a single over-par round which is key here. Orlando resident Watson clearly likes something about this track as last year indicates, and although his tie for 24th in 2011 may not leap off the page, he entered the final round in a tie for 3rd only to post a closing 78 and slide down the leaderboard. Watson will have no issues with the length of the course, and although he didn’t finish inside the top-10 at Doral, this was purely down to a poor final round after playing an otherwise very solid tournament.

4pts each way w/o Tiger Woods (28/1 Stan James)

Graeme McDowell – Another Orlando resident, Graeme McDowell certainly has his claims this week. The Northern Irishman finished in a tie for 3rd at Doral last time out, and he’s playing with stacks of confidence at the moment which makes him hard to avoid when you consider his runner-up finish in last year’s event here. McDowell is hitting plenty of fairways as ever, and although I’ve always considered him to be a solid putter, his PGA tour stats display a marked improvement in this area since last year. Importantly, McDowell seems to play his best golf on tough tracks and he looks a solid bet here this week.

4.5pts each way w/o Tiger Woods (18/1 Bet Victor)

Cameron Tringale – It’s easy to write a player off on the basis of a missed cut in their previous (or in this case, only) visit to the tournament course. However, when you look into the nature of the missed cut, you’ll see that Tringale fought back brilliantly from a dreadful first round 79 to post a three-under-par 69 in his second round and only miss the cut on the number. In fact, Tringale was the only player to break 70 whilst missing the cut. Obviously after a third-place finish last week, the 25-year-old’s game is in solid shape, and he is one of very few players with no obvious weakness in his game in terms of performance stats.

1pt each way w/o Tiger Woods (100/1 Bet 365)

Sean O’Hair – I’m convinced that O’Hair will return to former glory at some stage, but picking when is obviously no mean feat. The 30-year-old fared pretty well in the first two rounds last week, but a pair of 75s on the weekend give him little to show for the event. His top-20 finish in his previous tournament start, at the Honda Classic is possibly more meaningful, and I’m sure O’Hair will be looking forward to a return to Bay Hill where he has finished 2nd and 3rd in the not-too-distant past. His tie for 29th here last year is better than it looks too as he entered the final round inside the top-10.

1pt each way w/o Tiger Woods (125/1 Bet 365)

Brian Harman – With back-to-back top-20 finishes to his name, left-hander Brian Harman’s game is certainly trending in the right direction and his performance last week certifies my belief that he is at his best in high-scoring events. In his Bay Hill debut last year, Harman opened with a dismal 77 which left him looking very unlikely to make the cut. He followed that up with a second round of 69 and then a weekend performance of 71-68, a cumulative five-under weekend total which was only matched by three other players in the field.

1pt each way w/o Tiger Woods (125/1 Bet 365)

Garcia has put his putting woes behind him

The tournament, again taking place on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort, has existed in various different guises over recent years including the Transitions Championship, the PODS Championship and the Chrysler Championship (which held a slot later in the season).

The course measures 7,340 yards and is a rolling, tree-lined track that favours good ball-strikers. On the face of it, there is little similarity between the last two winners – Gary Woodland and Luke Donald, but if you delve a bit deeper there are a few stats which recent winners here share.

Firstly, consistency seems to be the name of the game here which would explain why each of the last four winners ranked in the top-15 in Scoring Average over the course of the seasons of their respective victories here.

Secondly, and maybe not quite as easy to explain, is the adeptness of recent winners in the 175-200 yard approach-shot range. Last year’s winner Luke Donald and 2010 winner Jim Furyk both ranked 12th in GIR Percentage from 175-200 yards in the seasons of their victories here, and 2011 winner Gary Woodland led the tour in the same stat in the year of his win here.

Here are my seven selections for this week:

Sergio Garcia – I’m not a regular backer of Garcia, but with question-marks over the form (or other attributes) of his counterparts at the top of the betting this week, Garcia looks to have strong claims this week. Clearly the big question-mark over Sergio over the last few years has been his putting. However, he looks much more comfortable over the short putts that were once his achilles’ heel, and the confidence is coming back with the flatstick. Garcia put on a pretty impressive ball-striking display last week on his way to a tie for 3rd last week, and his course form of 15-16 suggests he knows how to play the Copperhead Course. Furthermore, last year’s tie for 16th came off the back of a pretty dreadful outing at Doral, so with more confidence in his game this time around, I expect a big week from Garcia.

6pts win only (16/1 widely available)

Webb Simpson – Unlike Garcia, Webb Simpson often graces the pages of Golf Punters’ Guide, and I’m prepared to give him another chance this week after, on the face of it, a pretty average display last week. In actual fact, Simpson was very solid tee-to-green last week, and only some dismal putting (ranking 58th out of 65 in the field) resulted in a mediocre finish for the 27-year-old. Simpson loves tree-lined tracks like the Copperhead course, and his course form of 13-2-10 illustrates this. Encouragingly, Simpson ticks the other important boxes this week including ranking 24th in Scoring Average and 12th in GIR Percentage from 175-200 yards.

4.5pts each way (22/1 Stan James)

Geoff Ogilvy – Ogilvy’s performance at the recent Honda Classic is a clear indication the Aussie is getting back to his best, and although he didn’t reproduce the same form at Doral last week, it is an event he’s struggled in somewhat in recent years (which is bizarre considering he won the event in 2008). Ogilvy knows his way around the Copperhead course and course form of 10-28-28-16 is good enough to warrant consideration this week. The stats may not stack up for Ogilvy at present, but when you start a season in such dismal form, it’s important to take these with a pinch of salt. Ogilvy has openly spoken about his struggles on Bermuda greens, so he’ll be happy to get back onto more favourable putting surfaces (Poa Trivialis) this week.

1.5pts each way (66/1 Stan James)

Luke Guthrie – Unlike other courses on the PGA tour circuit, I wouldn’t write a player off who is making his course debut this week. After all, Gary Woodland won here two years ago on his first visit to Innisbrook, and young Luke Guthrie has the talent to follow in his footsteps this week. The 23-year-old has made a solid account of himself in his rookie season on tour, finishing 26th or better at Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach and Riviera – courses that generally reward knowledge and experience. His 3rd place finish at the Honda Classic was all the more impressive, and for an excellent ball-striker who ranks 22nd on tour in Scoring Average, Guthrie has to be worth an each-way punt this week.

1.5pts each way (66/1 Betfair fixed odds)

Lucas Glover – 2009 US Open champion Lucas Glover has been well and truly on my radar this season after showing some promising signs on the West Coast swing. The 33-year-old rubber-stamped his return to form with a tie for 4th last time out at the Honda Classic – his best PGA tour finish since his 2011 win at Quail Hollow, and he looks a lively outsider this week. Glover has finished inside the top-25 in two of his last three trips to Innisbrook, and he finished as high as tied 4th back in 2007.

1pt each way (90/1 Sportingbet)

Stewart Cink – Like Geoff Ogilvy, Stewart Cink has shown signs of a return to form this season, and the veteran will be relishing a return to Innisbrook where he has a runner-up finish to his name as well as other strong finishes. Cink currently ranks 16th on tour in GIR Percentage from 175-200 yards, his Scoring Average is better than it’s been for two years, and it just seems to be the flatstick that’s holding him back from contending for silverware again.

1pt each way (249/1 to win Betfair, 25/1 to place Coral)

Erik Compton – My rank outsider for this week is Erik Compton, who seems to be best known (at least by the golfing media) for being a double heart transplant recipient. The Florida native endured a disappointing 2012 campaign, but won his PGA tour card back at Q-School in December and seems to be making the most of his second chance with some solid finishes this year including a tie for 4th at the Honda Classic two weeks ago. Compton makes his first visit to Innisbrook this week, but as a player who ranks inside the top-20 on tour in Scoring Average, I think he’s worth an each-way bet.

0.75pts each way (175/1 Sportingbet)